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UBS is optimistic about the Indian real estate sector, forecasting a 15% CAGR in residential pre-sales from FY24 to FY29, driven by high affordability, regulatory reforms, and demographic trends. The brokerage has set target prices of ₹2,175 for Prestige Estates and ₹1,005 for DLF, indicating significant upside potential, while assigning a 'Neutral' rating to Oberoi Realty with a target of ₹2,230. Despite potential near-term market softness, UBS encourages viewing dips as buying opportunities, highlighting a sustainable upcycle supported by strong fundamentals.
UBS has initiated coverage on DLF and Prestige Estates with 'Buy' ratings, forecasting potential upsides of 18% and 27%, respectively, over the next year. While acknowledging possible near-term softness due to macroeconomic factors, UBS views any dips as buying opportunities, citing multiple tailwinds for growth in the real estate sector. Oberoi Realty received a 'Neutral' rating with a target price of ₹2,230.
UBS has initiated "buy" coverage on Prestige Estates and DLF, citing a favorable outlook for the Indian real estate sector, with projected CAGR of 15% in residential pre-sales and 25% in commercial revenue from FY24-29. The Nifty Realty index has surged over 4% recently, outperforming the Nifty 50. UBS anticipates a peak in interest rates, predicting cuts that could further support the market, especially in affordable housing.
UBS has initiated coverage on the real estate sector, recommending 'Buy' for DLF and Prestige Estates, citing the lowest inventory overhang in 15 years and strong affordability. The firm forecasts a 26% annual topline growth from FY24-29, driven by favorable market conditions and reduced leverage among top developers. While acknowledging potential near-term softness, UBS views any dips as buying opportunities, highlighting the sector's resilience and ongoing consolidation.
UBS Principal Capital sold a 1.03% stake in BSE Limited, with notable buyers including Amansa Holdings Private, Think India Opportunities Master Fund LP, and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. In a broader trading session, UBS offloaded shares in several Indian companies, including Alkem Laboratories, Kalyan Jewellers, and Oberoi Realty, while Amansa Holdings acquired 13.94 lakh shares of GMM Pfaudler. Other transactions included sales by Paradise Moon Investment Fund-I and Vikasa India EIF I Fund-Incube Global Opportunities in Mcon Rasayan India Ltd.
BJP's decisive victory in Maharashtra has sparked a surge in real estate stocks, with the Nifty Realty index rising over 3%. Key players like Godrej Properties, DLF, and Prestige Estates saw gains of 1-7%, driven by optimism for renewed infrastructure focus in the state after years of political instability. Analysts believe this consolidation in governance will enhance sentiment and accelerate stalled development projects.
Indian equities are set to receive $2.5 billion in inflows following the MSCI's latest rejig, which will include BSE, Voltas, Alkem Laboratories, Kalyan Jewellers, and Oberoi Realty in the MSCI Global Standard Index. HDFC Bank's weightage will increase, contributing to a total of 156 stocks in the MSCI Standard/EM Index, while the Smallcap Index will see 13 new inclusions, raising its total to 525. India's representation in the MSCI EM Index will rise from 19.3% to approximately 19.8%, marking the highest increase among emerging markets in this rejig.
Oberoi Realty reported a 49% YoY increase in pre-sales to INR 14.4 billion in 2QFY25, significantly surpassing estimates, driven by strong performance at the ‘360-West’ project in Worli. The Elysian Goregaon project saw a 147% YoY rise in pre-sales, while Borivali lagged behind. Motilal Oswal maintains a Neutral rating with a target price of INR 2,056, reflecting a 3% upside potential.

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